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Estimating Train Delays in a Large Rail Network Using a Zero Shot Markov Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Trains have been a prominent mode of long-distance travel for decades, especially in the countries with a significant land area and large population. India, with a population of 1.324 billion people in 2016, has a railway system of network route length of 66, 687 kilometers, with 11, 122 locomotives, 7, 216 stations, that served 8.107 billion ridership in 2016 [7]. The Indian railway system is fourth largest in the world in terms of network size. However its trains are plagued with endemic delays that can be credited to (a) obsolete technology, e.g., dated rail engines, (b) size, e.g., large network structure and high railway traffic, (c) weather, e.g., fog in winter months in north India and rains during summer monsoons countrywide. In this paper, we take the initial steps in understanding and predicting train delays.